U.S. markets delivered their strongest weekly gains of the year, with all major indexes finishing firmly in positive territory.

A fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran initially pushed both oil prices and interest rates lower. However, renewed tensions over the weekend—including U.S. threats of a blockade—sent oil higher again, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift. Meanwhile, March’s inflation report confirmed that the recent price spike was driven overwhelmingly by energy, not broader inflation pressures.

Under the surface, the data continues to support the view that the economy remains stable. Inflation outside energy is contained, the job market remains solid, and the Federal Reserve has room to remain patient.

Stock Index Performance

U.S. equities posted broad-based gains last week:

  • The S&P 500 advanced 3.56%.
  • The Nasdaq 100 surged 4.45%.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 3.04%.

What Moved Markets

U.S.–Iran ceasefire and weekend blockade threats. The ceasefire reduced fears of long-term supply disruptions, pulling Brent futures down to $90.40—their lowest level in nearly a month—and reversing the spike that pushed gasoline above $4.00 per gallon. Lower oil prices also helped bring interest rates down, and negotiations in Islamabad briefly calmed markets. But over the weekend, the U.S. threatened a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks stalled, reminding investors how quickly conditions can shift.

March inflation points to an energy-driven spike. Inflation rose in March, but nearly all of the increase came from energy. The Consumer Price Index climbed 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2024, with energy accounting for roughly three-quarters of the gain. Core inflation came in slightly below expectations at 2.6%, with several categories—such as medical care—posting outright declines. Markets interpreted these numbers as evidence of a temporary shock rather than a broad-based reacceleration in inflation.

The Federal Reserve stays patient. With core inflation stable and oil prices easing midweek, bond markets rallied. The 10-year Treasury yield drifted toward 4.3%, its lowest in nearly three weeks. The ceasefire produced a sharp one-day drop in yields as investors rotated back into Treasuries. Markets are not currently pricing in a rate cut for the Fed’s upcoming April 28–29 meeting.

The Week Ahead

Earnings season begins with the big banks. Major financial firms—including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley—will report results between April 13 and 16. These reports will provide early insight into profit trends, loan demand, and credit quality for 2026, all of which are critical for understanding the broader economic trajectory.

Tuesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is a key inflation test. After March’s energy-driven CPI surge, the PPI will help show whether higher input costs are spreading more broadly across the economy. A stronger-than-expected reading could quickly change expectations around the Fed’s policy path.

Looking ahead, investors should expect continued volatility as earnings reports, inflation data, and geopolitical developments shape market sentiment. Staying disciplined—and focused on long‑term goals—remains especially important during periods of uncertainty.

If you have questions about recent market moves or would like to discuss your investment strategy, I’m here to help.